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Around 240 million Americans are eligible to cast their votes in the November 5 US presidential elections. But a small number of crucial swing states are key to deciding the next US President.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are zeroing in on these battlegrounds, where the outcomes remain uncertain.
What Are Swing States?
Swing states, often referred to as battlegrounds, are instrumental in presidential elections. They are characterised by a nearly equal level of support for both major political parties, in this case, Democrats and Republicans, making them key to a candidate’s electoral strategy.
In 2024, the seven swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These regions have shown fluctuating voter preferences in recent elections.
Arizona
In Arizona, where US President Joe Biden won narrowly by just 10,000 votes in 2020, immigration remains a hot-button issue. With a lengthy border with Mexico, the state’s voters are concerned about immigration policies, a topic Trump has vehemently criticised Harris for. Abortion rights have also been a bone contention, as Republicans attempted to reinstate a nearly total ban on abortions.
Georgia
Georgia, another state where Biden registered a victory by a slander margin of 13,000 votes, is not just a swing state but also a legal battlefield for Donald Trump, who faces allegations of election interference. The state is home to a diverse demographic, with a significant African-American population crucial to Democratic strategies. Harris’s campaign aims to engage this demographic amid reports of growing disillusionment with the Biden administration.
Michigan
In Michigan, where Biden won by 1,50,000 votes, the landscape is complicated by significant discontent among key voter groups. President Biden has faced criticism for his foreign policy, particularly on US military aid to Israel, which has bombarded Gaza for over a year. Michigan has the largest proportion of Arab-American residents in the US, and their support for Biden has become increasingly tenuous. Harris has shifted her tone vis-a-vis Israel, aiming to reassure voters who feel sidelined by the administration’s policies while Trump keeps firm his stance on rapid military action.
Nevada
Nevada, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, shows signs of a tightening race, with recent polls suggesting a shift in favour of Republicans. Both campaigns are actively courting Nevada’s substantial Latino population, crucial to any candidate’s success in the state. The economic recovery post-COVID has been sluggish in Nevada compared to the rest of the country, making it a big concern. The high unemployment rate and cost-of-living pressures are also key issues for voters in this state.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Donald Trump’s narrow victory margin in 2020 (by 74,000 votes) has made this state a toss-up for 2024. With demographics and issues mirroring those of neighbouring Georgia and Arizona, both candidates are pouring resources into North Carolina. Trump recently held a rally here, promising to end inflation, stop the influx of criminals into the country and restore the American dream.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania holds 19 electoral votes and is a critical target for both candidates. Biden’s roots in Scranton give him a personal connection to voters in this working-class state. The economic landscape has shifted dramatically since Biden took office, with inflation affecting household budgets. Recent statistics show that grocery prices in Pennsylvania have risen faster than in any other state, leading to significant cost-of-living pressures among residents. Both campaigns are acutely aware that economic issues could sway undecided voters, particularly in counties like Erie, where food insecurity is a growing concern.
Wisconsin
Finally, Wisconsin has historically been a bellwether state, having backed the winning candidate in the last two elections. After a victory with just over 21,000 votes for Biden in 2020, the state is crucial for both the candidates. There is a growing concern about third-party candidates potentially syphoning votes away from the main candidates. Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr suspended his campaign in late August and endorsed Trump, which could alter the dynamics in this tightly contested state. Democrats are also facing challenges with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, whose inclusion on the ballot has been contested. Trump has stressed Wisconsin’s significance, declaring that winning the state could clinch the election.
