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Scientists have warned that the Arctic could witness its first ice-free day in just three years in 2027, as per a new study published in the journal, Nature Communications. Climatologists from Colorado University (CU) Boulder and the University of Gothenburg conducting the study stated that “ice free” refers to a sea ice area reduced to 1 million square kilometres or less. Currently, Arctic sea ice has been melting at an unprecedented rate of more than 12 per cent each decade, compared to its average extent during the period from 1981 to 2010, according to NASA.
Using hundreds of simulations projecting climate change impact between 2023 to 2100, the scientists found that the Arctic will likely go ice-free within nine to 20 years with the most pessimistic prediction projecting that it could happen as soon as in three years’ time.
If the Arctic does go ice-free, it would notably enhance the warming of the upper ocean, accelerating sea ice loss year round and therefore further accelerating climate change. Additionally, once a first ice-free day occurs, it may last between one day and 71 days, with a mean length of 25 days and a standard deviation of 17 days.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically. But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions,” said Alexandra Jahn, the co-author of the study.
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Doomsday near?
A further reduction of the summer sea ice cover will also negatively impact the already-stressed Arctic ecosystem — with the polar bear to the crucial zooplankton facing existential crisis. Notably, as the sea ice melts, it exposes the darker waters that absorb more of the sun’s rays — effectively turning the Arctic from a refrigerator to a radiator.
Despite the doomsday prediction, scientists provided a sliver of hope, stating that a drastic cut in carbon dioxide emissions could dramatically push the ice-free day and soften the impact of such a phenomenon on the planet.
