Nifty 50 projected to hit 28,800 in 2025, says ICICI Direct; SAIL, BEML, Indian Bank among top picks

The Indian stock market benchmark index, Nifty 50, is projected to reach the 28,800 mark by 2025, according to estimates by ICICI Direct. The brokerage anticipates an 18% rally from the index’s closing level on Tuesday, based on its traditional and statistical analysis.

Currently, Nifty 50 is trading over 8% below its all-time high of 26,277.35. ICICI Direct has set the Nifty target of 28,800 in 2025, with critical support identified at the 22,000 level.

“In the journey of Nifty @ 50,000 by CY30, Nifty has achieved the milestone of 24,800 for the CY24. After volatile H2CY24, our traditional as well as statistical analysis depicts that the stage has been set to embark upon the next up move towards 28,800 levels in the CY25 while key support threshold is placed at 22,000,” ICICI Direct said in a report.

The anticipated rally in Nifty 50 is expected to be supported by a more favorable risk-reward dynamic, as the Rising Channel pattern demonstrates increased buying demand at a higher support base, according to ICICI Direct.

It expects Nifty 50 to endure its northbound journey towards the upper band of the channel placed around 28,800 by CY25.

“The index has bounced from the lower band of the two years rising channel, thereby offering favorable risk reward setup. Historically, buying near 52 weeks EMA (Exponential Moving Average) offers favourable risk reward with a median return of 23% in next 12 months with median drawdown below 52 weeks EMA of 6%. We believe the current correction offers fresh entry opportunity as risk reward ratio is favourable at 52 weeks EMA after 12% correction, auguring well for move towards 28,800 by CY25,” ICICI Direct said.

Additionally, going by four decade history, post-election year returns have been positive with a success rate of 82%. The rolling average of past four elections is around 18% that corroborates with ICICI Direct’s Nifty target of 28,800 by CY25.

Therefore, the brokerage firm advises to use secondary correction as a buying opportunity.

It expects sectors such as Financials, Capital Goods and IT to hog the limelight.

ICICI Direct has listed its top picks for 2025. The list contains eight stocks which it expects to deliver around 15% to 25% returns over the next 12 months. The stocks to buy include United Spirits, Indian Bank, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), CESC, BEML, JK Lakshmi Cement, Timken India and Rallis India.

Here are ICICI Direct’s top picks for 2025.

Stocks to buy

United Spirits | Target Price: ₹1,820

Indian Bank | Target Price: ₹705

SAIL | Target Price: ₹153

CESC | Target Price: ₹235

BEML | Target Price: ₹5,390

JK Lakshmi Cement | Target Price: ₹994

Timken India | Target Price: ₹3,950

Rallis India | Target Price: ₹375

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.