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Sri Lanka’s northern Tamil voters are torn this presidential election, between a candidate who may win, and one who will certainly lose.
While some are backing one of the frontrunners among the Sinhalese candidates, others have decided to support a Tamil candidate. Every voter knows well that “Tamil common candidate” P Ariyanethiran — fielded jointly by some political and civil society groups based in the island nation’s north and east — cannot win given the numeric reality of Sri Lanka’s electoral map. The Sinhalese majority make up around 75 per cent of the country that was torn apart by bitter ethnic conflict between the two communities.
“After the civil war ended in 2009, our people hoped that even if their political rights were denied, they could live with some security and dignity. Listening to our (Tamil) political leadership, they backed different candidates in past elections. What did we gain?” asks Fr Santhiyogu Marcus, President of the Mannar Citizens’ Committee.
For at least two decades, Tamils had a straightforward choice and delivered a bloc vote — except when the rebel Tamil Tigers enforced a boycott in 2005 — in the presidential elections. They despised the Rajapaksa clan, accused of serious human rights violations during and after the civil war. They emphatically rejected Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2010 and 2015, and Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. The main Tamil party representing Tamils of the north and east, too, invariably backed the chief challenger of the Rajapaksas in every national election.
Altered landscape
However, this is the first election campaign in 20 years that is not dominated by a Rajapaksa surname. Two years after a people’s uprising evicted Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office in 2022, Sri Lanka’s political terrain looks starkly different. The September 21 election, the first poll since, has three candidates at the fore – incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition politicians Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, one of whom is expected to win.
“Ariyanethiran is not seen as an individual who will win this contest, but as someone who is a symbol of our identity and struggles,” Fr Marcus observes. Many acknowledge his bleak electoral prospects but say they will back him nevertheless, to deliver a “strong message” to the southern political establishment and the international community.
On the other hand, critics of the move term it “political suicide”. Abandoning pragmatic negotiation with the southern leadership would further isolate Tamils and weaken their bargaining power, they contend.
Fifteen years after the civil war ended, after claiming several tens of thousands of civilian lives, Tamils in the north and east are unable to live in peace. Their lands are systematically grabbed by state agencies, their call for truth and justice over alleged war crimes remain, the whereabouts of scores of forcibly missing persons are unknown, a just political solution is elusive, and the war-battered economy has not created decent jobs or livelihoods.
In this context, sections see backing the Tamil candidate as a way of airing their frustration – not just with the national leadership, but also with their own, deeply divided Tamil political leadership. “Tamil leaders are showing us that they cannot be united in this struggle. The parties have split and there are so many splinter groups. They have weakened our position so much,” says K Rajachandran, leader of a Jaffna-based fisheries cooperative. “So, we want to tell our Tamil politicians, even if you can’t stand united, the Tamil people will come together behind this common candidate.”
Fragmented Tamil polity
The northern Tamil polity is in shreds, with prominent leaders taking poll positions ranging from backing a southern candidate, campaigning for the Tamil “common candidate”, to boycotting the polls altogether.
The once-powerful Tamil National Alliance (TNA), led by the prominent Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), has collapsed, with two other constituents breaking away some years ago. Even the ITAK is marred by serious internal divisions, seen in the conflicting positions aired by its members on a daily basis in the run up to the polls. The contradictions within were no secret earlier but have become more pronounced after the passing of senior Tamil leader R Sampanthan in June.
Earlier this month, the ITAK, through its Jaffna legislator MA Sumanthiran, announced its support for presidential aspirant Premadasa. Meanwhile, ITAK legislator Sivagnanam Shritharan is canvassing for Ariyanethiran, and senior leader Mavai Senathirajah continues to give mixed signals.
“Voters are finding it very confusing this election,” notes Rajany Rajeshwary, founder of Vallamai, a Jaffna-based movement for social change. “I fear that our votes will be split, and we will expose our weakness,” she says.
Meanwhile some voters, especially the youth, are disillusioned. “In the south, they tell us ‘think and vote as a Sri Lankan’. How can I do that when their discriminatory actions keep reminding me that I am Tamil?” asks Marynathan Edison, a fisherman and environmentalist in Mannar.
