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A prominent presidential historian, Dr Allan Lichtman, has reiterated his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump, dismissing concerns about an “October surprise” affecting the outcome.
Dr Lichtman, a professor at American University and renowned for accurately forecasting nine of the last ten US elections, made his prediction early in September.
In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, Dr Lichtman stated, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauge the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”
Dr Lichtman’s “keys” refer to a system of 13 categories he uses to assess each candidate’s viability for the presidency. In September, he said Mrs Harris holds an advantage in eight of the 13 keys, while Trump secured three.
Historically, Dr Lichtman’s assertion about the insignificance of “October surprises” is supported by precedent. In the lead-up to the 2016 election, a leaked “Access Hollywood” tape revealed Trump making controversial remarks about women. Despite the fallout, Trump ultimately won the election, a prediction Lichtman had made based on his key system.
“I’ve never changed a prediction in 40 years, and I’m not doing it now,” Lichtman affirmed. The scholar, who identifies as a registered Democrat, claims to have accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1984. However, some critics highlight inconsistencies in his rationale over the years, particularly regarding the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Despite his unwavering forecast for Harris, Dr Lichtman emphasised the importance of voter participation. “The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he urged.
Recent polling data shows Mrs Harris with a narrow lead over Donald Trump, holding a two-percentage point advantage in multi-candidate polls, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.
As the election approaches, all eyes will be on whether Dr Lichtman’s predictions hold true.
