Thursday, November 21, 2024

Delhivery share price rallies 4% after posting net profit for second consecutive quarter. Should you buy the stock?

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Delhivery share price rallied nearly 4% on Monday after the logistics company reported net profit for the second quarter in a row. Delhivery shares gained as much as 3.93% to 343.35 apiece on the BSE.

Delhivery reported a consolidated net profit of 10.2 crore in the second quarter ended September 30, as against a loss of 103 crore in the year ago period. The company’s profit, however, declined 81% from 54 crore in the June 2024 quarter.

The consolidated revenue from operations in Q2FY25 increased 13% to 2,190 crore from 1,942 crore, year-on-year (YoY). The revenue grew 0.80% from 2,172 crore reported in Q1FY25.

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Part Truckload (PTL) revenue in Q2FY25 grew 27% YoY to 474 crore, while PTL volumes rose 23% YoY. Supply Chain Services revenue rose 21% YoY to 197 crore, while Truckload service revenue grew 5% YoY to 158 crore.

At the operational level, EBITDA during the September quarter rose to 57 crore from an EBITDA loss of 16 crore, YoY.

What do analysts say?

According to Anshul Agrawal, Research Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, Delhivery’s performance in the PTL segment remains robust, although it continues to face headwinds in B2C owing to weak consumption trends and insourcing by Meesho.

“With the management alluding to a series of initiatives for sprucing up B2C volumes, we believe Delhivery’s cost and tech advantages should help further bolster its market share. While service EBITDA margin contracted sequentially on account of network expansion in anticipation of festive demand surge, an imminent pickup in volumes in Q3 (October run-rate is up by over 25% vs the Q2 monthly average) along with declining capex intensity should bode well for the margin trajectory in coming quarters,” said Agarwal.

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Factoring in the miss on margins and the subdued environment, Emkay Global cuts FY26E and FY27E sales estimates by 3% and 5% and EBITDA estimates by 6% and 9%, respectively. It retained a ‘Buy’ call on Delhivery shares and cut the September 2025 target price by 5% to 475 per share.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said Delhivery reported a healthy 13% YoY growth in revenue in Q2FY25, while EBITDA was weaker than expectations due to continued investments (building capacities prior to season and in PTL segment).

The brokerage firm expects margins to recover once the investments towards upgradation are over, but believes the current price point creates a reasonable level for entry. It cuts EPS estimates by up to 40% to reflect the Q2 performance and outlook and bakes in revenue CAGR of 15% in FY24–27 and EBITDA margin improvement from 1.6% to 8.1% by FY27.

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Nuvama Equities estimates exit RoIC at 5.5% given sustained investments and continues to value Delhivery at 30x Dec-26 EV/EBITDA. Given the recent sharp correction in Delhivery share price, the brokerage firm upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’, but cut the December 2025 target price to 400 apiece from 473 earlier.

“Delhivery can sustain high valuation, in our opinion, given its market leadership in express parcel and ability to create and scale new segments,” Nuvama said.

At 11:14 AM, Delhivery shares were trading 0.79% lower at 327.75 apiece on the BSE

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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