Benchmark indices are expected to open on positive note on Thursday amid mixed global cues. Analysts said exit polls are unlikely to influence the market movement today given the mixed signal. Focus will be on foreign portfolio investors’ behaviour and global markets. Cues from global markets are mixed with Nikkei and Hang Seng are down even as Kospi moved up.
Gift Nifty at 23,520 indicates a flat start for domestic markets; Nifty futures on Tuesday closed at 23,535. According to experts, slow down in economic activity and muted Q2 results are likely to keep market under pressure.
ICRA has projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to dip to 6.5 per cent in Q2 FY2025 from 6.7 per cent in Q1 FY2025, with heavy rains and weak margins offsetting the buoyancy injected by the turnaround in Government capital expenditure and healthy trends in kharif sowing. Further, the growth in the gross value added (GVA) is estimated to ease to 6.6 per cent in Q2 FY2025 from 6.8 per cent in Q1 FY2025, driven by the industrial (to +5.5 per cent from +8.3 per cent) sector, amid a pick-up in the expansion in services (to +7.8 per cent from +7.2 per cent) and agricultural GVA (to +3.5 per cent from +2.0 per cent).
F&O is also signalling a negative sentiment.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: The options data reflects a bearish sentiment, with substantial call writing seen at higher levels. The 24,000-strike call recorded the highest open interest (1 crore contracts), followed by notable put interest at the 23,000-strike level (60.99 lakh contracts). “Active positions concentrated in the 23,500–23,900 call range and the 23,100–23,400 put range reinforce resistance at 24,000 and support near 23,000. Rising call-writing activity across the 23,500–24,000 zone indicates heightened selling pressure, while declining put-writing volumes reveal cautious market sentiment. The put-call ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.65 from 0.73, reflecting a subdued outlook as bearish momentum strengthens. The “max pain” level at 23,700 indicates a potential ceiling for any recovery attempts,” he added.
India VIX surged 3.26 per cent to 15.66, signalling heightened caution and the likelihood of increased volatility attracting further selling interest, he further said.
