India’s exports of petroleum products rose on an annual basis aided by higher outbound shipments of petrol, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and fuel oil.
According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), exports of refined products rose by 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y to 5.05 million tonnes (MT) provisionally. On a monthly basis, the shipments were lower by 22.2 per cent.
The exports of POL products increased by 4.2 per cent Y-o-Y during April-October in FY25 to 36.76 MT largely on account of increase in outbound cargoes of petcoke, fuel oil, petrol and jet fuel.
Xavier Tang, Market Analyst at Vortexa, said India’s refined product exports increased by 20 per cent year-on-year in October 2024, mainly due to increased gasoline, jet/kero, and fuel oil exports.
“The export growth, when compared on a year-on-year basis, seems high due to lower export figures in October 2023; however, October 2024 exports are down slightly from the average volumes in the first 9 months of the year,” he told businessline.
According to data from the energy intelligence firm, diesel exports rose by 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y to around 554,511 barrels per day (b/d) in October 2024. However, on a monthly basis the shipments fell by 16.6 per cent.
Petrol, or motor spirit (MS), export shipments rose by a whopping 104.5 per cent Y-o-Y and 9.1 per cent M-o-M to 402,845 b/d during the same period, data from Vortexa showed.
On the other hand, jet fuel shipments fell by 30.6 per cent M-o-M to 159,971 b/d in October. However, cargoes were higher by 32.4 per cent on an annual basis.
On the export scenario for diesel in Asia, Tang said diesel/ gasoil exports to Asia have been rising since August, reaching over 100,000 b/d in October.
“A closed east-west diesel arb (arbitrage) to Europe, coupled with tighter diesel supplies in Asia due to several unplanned refinery outages, have driven Indian refiners to export more diesel/ gasoil to Asia. More Indian diesel/ gasoil cargoes have loaded for Asia this month, with limited arbitrage opportunities to Europe,” he explained.
After hitting a six-month high in September 2024, India’s diesel exports are expected to lose steam during the festival season impacted by weakening price arbitrage in Europe amidst anticipation of higher domestic consumption during October to December 2024.
According to Vortexa, strong exports were driven by weak domestic (India) demand due to monsoons, as well as an open diesel arbitrage to Europe amidst the region’s refinery maintenance. With domestic demand in India expected to pick up from October onwards, and Europe’s refinery maintenance tapering off, India’s diesel exports to Europe could slow in the coming months.
“Our preliminary data shows India’s refined product exports in November matching October’s levels, but down year-on-year. Higher domestic demand buoyed by the festive season, coupled with weak export margins especially to the west, is likely to keep a lid on India’s refined product exports in December,” Tang said.
