Friday, December 13, 2024

Investors assess inflation data and Fed policy

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The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was mostly flat on Friday as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year.

The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.333% at 5:00 a.m. ET, after jumping more than six basis points on Thursday to climb above the 4.3% level. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, meanwhile, was 1 basis point higher at 4.199%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

The moves come ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, with investors overwhelmingly expecting a quarter-point interest rate cut.

U.S. inflation data published Thursday showed wholesale prices rose 0.4% in November, higher than the 0.2% level expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. At the same time, a jump in jobless claims data signaled a potentially weaker economy, muting some of the gain in yields.

The pair of reports came one day after November’s consumer price index report published Wednesday showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% and a 0.3% monthly increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was at 3.3% on an annual basis and 0.3% monthly. All the numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 97% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction at the Fed’s meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On the data front, import prices for November will be released at around 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

— CNBC’s Sean Conlon contributed to this report.



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