Nomura On Dixon Tech
Buy Call, Target At Rs18,654/Sh
Co Launches Mass Production Of Google Pixel Smartphones
China+1 Can Lead To Significant Long-term Potential From Google
Est Addition Of Rs1,500 Cr Revenue, 4% Of FY26 Smartphone Sales Depending On Ramp-up
Co Will Showcase Capabilities To Make Premium Phones & Will Be Key Longer-term Positive
HSBC on Cable and Wire OEMs
Demand environment looking +ve for CY25
While capacity growth is set to outpace demand growth, still see margin improvement in CY25 led by wires biz
Polycab– Buy, TP Rs 7750
KEI Ind– Hold, TP Rs 4350
RR Kabel– Hold, TP Rs 1700
HSBC on Titagarh Rail
Buy, TP cut to Rs 1425 from Rs 1980
With state elections behind, awarding of metro rolling stock has resumed; opportunity pipeline is strong
Though execution of existing metro & Vande Bharat orders are slower than earlier expected, leading to est. cut
Cut Revenue & EPS Estimate By 9-11% In FY26/27
Nuvama on Adani Ports
Buy, TP Rs 1960
Investor Day at its Vizhinjam port
Takeaways
i) Reiterated its guidance of 1bnt handling vol by 2030
ii) Logistics to be significant growth driver
iii) Significant tech advancement in ports & logistics
iv) Strong b/s discipline
MS On IndusInd Bank
Equal-Weight Call, Target Cut To Rs1,150/Sh From Rs1,400/Sh
Stock Price Has Fallen 30% Post Earnings Owing To MFI Asset Quality
Detail Risk Reward – While Not Bad, Risks Are Towards Downside
Continue To Apply 30% Bear Case Weight & Better Risk Reward At Large Private Banks
GS On HDFC Bank
Buy Call, Target At `2,156/Sh
Maintain Positive View
See EPS Growing At A 15% CAGR Over FY24-27 On Back Of Core PpOP Growth Of 18% CAGR
See Improvement In Margin, Cost-To-Assets Driven By Operating Leverage
Investors May Start To Focus On EPS Growth More Than PpOP Growth To Adjust For Credit-Cost Outcomes
Expect Credit Cost To Remain In A Predictable Range Of 40-45 bps Of Loan Book
Jefferies On Bajaj Fin
Buy Call, Target At `8,400/Sh
Co Withdrew Co-branded Credit Cards Where It Partnered With RBL Bank & DBS Bank
Withdrawal Of Co-branded Credit Card Reflects Concern On Asset Quality In Mass-Mkt Credit Card
Limited Impact As Loss On Origination Fee May Be Partly Made Up By Lower Costs
Within SME Loans, Flexi-Loan Book Also Shouldn’t Face Regulatory Risks As It’s Quite Compliant
MS on RBL BK
UW, TP Rs 180
Co-branded card partnership with Bajaj Fin discontinued
Bajaj Fin was a sizeable channel for RBL Bank in terms of credit card issuance, & this move could constrain RBL’s potential credit card market share over medium term.
While RoA for credit card portfolio may improve, believe this is net -ve for medium-term earnings Earnings outlook is tough, particularly driven by challenges in the MFI segment.
This will likely keep RoE below COE & hence val at 0.6x bk
Investec On RBL Bank
Hold Call, Target Cut To `170/Sh
Co Has Terminated Its Co-branding Card Arrangement With Bajaj Fin, Its Largest Sourcing Partner
Move Was Likely Prompted By Need To Reduce Dependence On Bajaj Fin
Expect Headline Credit Growth To Moderate By 200 bps To 13-14% YoY In FY25
Growth May Revive In H2FY26 Onwards As Co Scales Up Arrangements With New Cobranding Partners
CITI on RBL BK
Buy, TP Rs 255
RBK & BAF decided to stop fresh issuance of co-branded credit card
Impact: BAF sourcing constituted 50-55%
Origination cost sharing will terminate but trail payout will continue.
Mgmt expects to grow credit card portfolio at 10-15% in near term
Emkay on Anant Raj
Initiate BUY, TP Rs 925
Making it big in high-growth data center & cloud space
In Real Estate, comfortable launch pipeline to drive bookings/collections CAGR of 18%/39% during FY24-27E.
Deleveraged b/s & likely fund-raise to support Data Center growth
CITI ON GDP
Real GDP Growth Fell To A 7-quarter Low Of 5.4% YoY In Q2FY25 (Vs BBG Est Of 6.5%)
Investment Contributed 70 bps Of The 130 bps Growth Deceleration
There Was A Broad-Based Slowdown In Industrial Growth, While Services Remained Resilient
Part Of Industrial Slowdown Could Be Due To One-offs & An Unfavourable Base
Consumption Growth Slowdown Was In-line With Expectations – Rural Better Than Urban
Activity Data For Oct Remained Mixed
There Is Improvement In Rural Consumption & Continued Slowdown In Public Capex
Revise FY25 Real GDP Growth To 6.4% YoY (Vs 7% Earlier, RBI Est At 7.2% YoY)
While Elevated Inflation Makes A Dec Rate Cut Unlikely
RBI Could Explicitly Acknowledge Need To Support Growth, Cementing A Feb Rate Cut View
That Said, The RBI Could Consider CRR Cut In Dec To Ease Liquidity Pressures.
There Could Be Renewed Urgency On Public Capex, Even If It Remained Below The FY25 Target
UBS ON GDP
Growth In The September Quarter Was Much Below Consensus Expectation
Lowering FY25 Real GDP Growth To 6.3% YoY; Sequential Pick-up Likely In H2
Need Policy (Monetary & Fiscal) Support To Take Growth Towards 6.5% YoY
By Expenditure: Consumption And Capex Down; Net Export Contribution Up
By Production: Weak Industry Segment Growth Led The Slowdown.
MS On GDP
Expect Growth To Have Likely Bottomed Out And Thus Rebound In H2FY25
Mark-To-Market GDP Cut To 6.3% YoY For FY25
Slowdown Was Evident In Both Capex & Private Consumption
However, Consumption Growth At 6% Outpaced Capex Growth Of 5.4%
Net Exports Contributed Positively
Industry Remained Weak At 3.9% YoY With Manufacturing & Electricity Being A Drag
HSBC On GDP
GDP Grew At A Tepid 5.4% In Quarter Ending September, Well Below Expectation
Industry Came In Weaker Than Services, & Consumption Weaker Than Investment
Believe RBI Will Cut Rates Starting Feb, But Could Ease Liquidity Earlier, Starting December
JP Morgan On GDP
Nominal GDP Growth Slowed To 8%, Lowest Since December 2020
While Quantum Of Undershoot A Surprise, Trajectory Of Slowing Growth In Recently Is Not
Expect The First Cut In Feb, When The Has More Conviction Of Headline CPI Rolling Over
Yesterday’s Sharp GDP Downside Surprise Has Increased Odds Of A Cut At Next Wk’s Review
Base Case Remains That RBI Remains On A Dovish Hold Next Week
RBI Will Either Announce Or Signal Some Liquidity Easing In Anticipation Of Tightening Liquidity
Nomura On GDP
Slowing Consumption & Invst Growth Suggest Domestic Growth Engines Are Sputtering
Moderation Reflects A Mix Of Transient Factors, Which Should Reverse
Moderation Reflects Endemic Factors As Well Such As Ebbing Of Post-Pandemic Pent-Up Demand
Moderation Reflects Slowing Income Growth, RBI’s Macro-prudential Tightening & Weak Pvt Capex
Lower Our FY25 GDP Growth To 6.0% (From 6.7%) And FY26 To 5.9% (Vs 6.8%)
Expect 100 bps In Rate Cuts, Starting December
Goldman Sachs On GDP
Lower Our CY24 & FY25 Real GDP Growth Est By 30 Bps & 40 Bps To 6.4% YoY & 6.0% YoY Respectively
Maintain Our CY25 And FY26 Real GDP Growth Forecast At 6.3% YoY Each
