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For eight years now, the global economy has been weathering a succession of shocks – from trade conflicts and a pandemic to bloody wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. That’s led to a new era of geopolitics and fragmentation, one that’s driving investment and trade flows in new ways.
Indeed, a remarkable consequence of how the global economy is being reorganized is that companies and countries are reallocating capital and building fresh relationships. We reveal how more than 100 countries across the globe are taking advantage of this shifting landscape.
Some contend this new state of affairs signals the end of globalization. But that’s arguably too simplistic. Instead, globalization is just rapidly changing shape. Emerging alongside rival blocs-one US-led and pro-Western and the other Chinese- and Russia-led-is a large family of economies that are refusing to pick sides-and profiting as a result.
Last year, Bloomberg introduced you to “the Connectors,” a small band of countries like Mexico and Vietnam that are exploiting trade links with both rival blocs while serving as a bridge between them.
This year, we’d like you to meet a bigger group of countries, the 101 economies we’re calling the “New Neutrals.” These countries are the ones that consistently opt out of the geopolitical fray, at least as measured by their stance on United Nations votes that many economists are starting to monitor as a gauge of geopolitical alliances.
As a group, they are consequential in that they make up more than half of the world’s population and almost a fifth of its economic output. The key point though is that these New Neutrals are benefiting economically from their hedging stance. Above all, they’re seeing a significant increase in foreign investment in new factories and other projects that amount to long-term bets by companies and investors.
There are qualifications and questions, for sure. Thanks to China’s exports and Russia’s energy resources, a growing share of the New Neutrals’ trade is with the pro-China and Russia bloc. An inward-looking US is also drawing more foreign investment, too, thanks to industrial subsidies and trade barriers.
